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Relatório da agência ambiental da ONU alerta que o mundo deve tomar medidas urgentes para cortar mais 25% das emissões previstas em 2030

* O planeta ainda está caminhando para um aumento médio de temperatura entre 2,9°C a 3,4°C neste século, mesmo com os compromissos do Acordo de Paris
* As emissões de 2030 serão de 12 a 14 gigatoneladas acima dos níveis necessários para limitar o aquecimento global a 2°C
* Oportunidades incluem o reforço da ação antes de 2020, com base nas promessas de Cancún, eficiência energética rentável e o reforço da ação climática por parte das cidades, das empresas e da sociedade civil

O mundo deve aumentar urgente e dramaticamente sua ambição de cortar aproximadamente mais um quarto das emissões globais dos gases de efeito estufa previstas em 2030 para ter qualquer chance de minimizar o perigo das mudanças climáticas, declarou hoje o Programa de Meio Ambiente das Nações Unidas (PNUMA) durante o lançamento do seu relatório anual sobre o tema, o UNEP Emissions Gap Report.

Lançado na véspera da entrada em vigor do Acordo de Paris, o relatório revela que as emissões em 2030 deverão atingir de 54 a 56 gigatoneladas de dióxido de carbono - muito acima do nível de 42 gigatoneladas necessário para que haja uma chance de limitar o aquecimento global a 2°C (em comparação com os níveis pré-industriais) neste século. Uma gigatonelada é aproximadamente equivalente às emissões geradas pelos transportes na União Europeia (incluindo a aviação) ao longo de um ano.

Os cientistas concordam que limitar o aquecimento global a menos de 2°C neste século reduzirá a probabilidade de tempestades mais intensas, secas mais longas, aumento do nível do mar e outros impactos climáticos severos. Mesmo a meta mais abaixo, de 1,5°C, só reduzirá, em vez de eliminar, os impactos.

Mesmo se as promessas de Paris forem totalmente implementadas, as emissões previstas para 2030 colocam o mundo na rota de um aumento de temperatura de 2,9°C a 3,4°C neste século. Esperar para aumentar a ambição provavelmente desperdiça a chance de atingir a meta de 1,5°C, além de aumentar o uso da tecnologia intensiva em carbono e inflar o custo de uma transição global para baixas emissões.

"Estamos avançando na direção certa: o Acordo de Paris irá desacelerar as alterações climáticas, assim como a recente Emenda de Kigali para reduzir os HFCs", afirma Erik Solheim, chefe do Programa de Meio Ambiente da ONU. "Ambos mostram forte compromisso, mas ainda não o suficiente se quisermos ter uma chance de evitar graves mudanças climáticas. Se não começarmos a adotar medidas adicionais agora, começando com a próxima reunião climática em Marrakesh, vamos lamentar uma tragédia humana evitável. O crescente número de refugiados climáticos atingidos pela fome, pobreza, doença e conflito será um lembrete constante do nosso fracasso. A ciência mostra que precisamos nos mover muito mais rápido."

A necessidade de ações urgentes foi reforçada pelo fato de que 2015 foi o ano mais quente desde que começou o acompanhamento da temperatura do planeta. A tendência continua, com todos os primeiros seis meses de 2016 sendo os mais quentes já registrados. No entanto, as emissões continuam a aumentar, diz o relatório.

A Emenda de Kigali ao Protocolo de Montreal, aprovada no mês passado, tem como objetivo reduzir o uso de hidrofluorcarbonetos. Estudos iniciais indicam que isso poderia reduzir outros 0,5°C se ela for totalmente implementada, embora uma taxa significativa de redução das emissões não comece antes de 2025.

Além disso, embora os membros do G20 estejam coletivamente no caminho certo para cumprir suas promessas para 2020 feitas na CoP de Cancún, elas não conseguem criar um ponto de partida suficientemente ambicioso para que se alcance o objetivo de temperatura do Acordo de Paris. No entanto, o relatório do PNUMA apresenta uma avaliação das tecnologias e oportunidades para fazer os cortes adicionais necessários, incluindo atores não estatais, a aceleração da eficiência energética e o cruzamento com os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável.

Atores não estatais (como o setor privado, as cidades, as regiões e outros atores subnacionais, como grupos de cidadãos) podem reduzir várias gigatoneladas até 2030 em áreas como agricultura e transportes, desde que muitas iniciativas cumpram seus objetivos e não substituam outras ações.

A eficiência energética é outra área onde o investimento poderia trazer maiores ganhos. Os investimentos em eficiência energética aumentaram 6% para US$ 221 bilhões em 2015, indicando que já estão ocorrendo ações. Estudos mostram que, para um investimento entre 20 e 100 dólares por tonelada de dióxido de carbono, o potencial de redução de emissões gerado pela eficiência energética (em gigatoneladas) até 2030 é de  5,9 para edifícios, 4,1 para indústria e 2,1 para transportes.  Um novo relatório divulgado pela 1 Gigaton Coalition mostra que os projetos de energia renovável e eficiência energética implementados nos países em desenvolvimento de 2005 a 2015 reduzirão as emissões em quase meia gigatonelada até 2020, incluindo ações de países que não fizeram promessas formais em Cancún.

"Os projetos apoiados internacionalmente sobre energia renovável e eficiência energética estão fazendo contribuições significativas para reduzir as emissões globais de gases de efeito estufa", afirma Børge Brende, ministro de Relações Exteriores da Noruega.  "Graças ao trabalho da 1 Gigaton Coalition podemos medir e relatar o impacto desses projetos para ver o quanto ainda temos que avançar para alcançar a meta climática. Esta é a forma como a coalizão pretende inspirar os países do mundo a aumentar a sua ação e ambição sobre as alterações climáticas através do setor da energia".

Finalmente, a ação climática está entrelaçada com os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável. Os primeiros impactos das mudanças climáticas podem minar nossa capacidade de cumprir as metas até 2030 e o fracasso em cumprir a meta de ação climática terá implicações ainda maiores para manter o progresso do desenvolvimento pós-2030.  A implementação bem-sucedida do Acordo de Paris e da agenda dos objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável dependerá da capacidade dos governos de desenvolver metas nacionais que atendam ambos e que aproveitem as oportunidades comuns.

Para baixar o Emissions Gap Report, o relatório da 1 Gigaton Coalition e uma breve análise das Promessas de Cancún do G20 clique aqui.

 

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