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Meta de clima exigirá taxar o carbono

Estudo sobre opções de mitigação de emissões no Brasil mostra que objetivo de 2025 é fácil, mas o de 2030 dependerá de esforços extras

Giovana Girardi, O Estado de S.Paulo

A crise econômica, aliada a políticas brasileiras existentes e turbinadas com ações de baixo carbono, deixa o País em um caminho relativamente fácil para cumprir suas metas de redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa até 2025. Mas, para 2030, o País precisará contar com algum plano de colocar um preço sobre o carbono emitido, ou ficará com emissões bem superiores às metas apresentadas junto ao Acordo de Paris.

Os dados fazem parte do estudo "Opções de Mitigação", encomendado pelo Ministério da Ciência e lançado no final da Conferência do Clima da ONU em Marrakesh, há dez dias. O trabalho, que contou com mais de 90 pesquisadores de diversas instituições, traçou diversos cenários de ações que o Brasil pode adotar para reduzir suas emissões, considerando a situação econômica atual de crise e as futuras de crescimento.

De acordo com Régis Rathmann, que coordenou o trabalho no ministério, a mensagem principal é que se o País seguir somente as políticas de mitigação já existentes - o chamado "cenário de referência" -, como Código Florestal, Plano Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas, Plano ABC (Agricultura de Baixo Carbono), em 2050 a taxa de emissões estará 50% maior.

Para 2025, ano em que o Brasil se comprometeu a emitir 1,3 gigatonelada de CO2 (valor 37% menor do que emitido em 2005), as análises mostram que a crise econômica, que diminui o consumo e, portanto, a atividade industrial, já nos coloca nesse caminho. Mas é preciso também cumprir todas as leis e ir um pouco além (o chamado cenário de baixo carbono), como aumentar áreas de restauração florestal, ter metas ainda mais ambiciosas de redução de desmatamento não só na Amazônia, mas também no Cerrado e na Caatinga, e investir em eficiência energética.
 


"Parece um pequeno esforço, mas muitas dessas medidas, que ao longo de sua vida útil trazem um ganho econômico, ainda enfrentam barreiras que precisam ser rompidas. Não há créditos para que o empreendedor adquira a tecnologia de baixo carbono", diz Rathmann.

O simples atendimento do cenário de referência, mostra o estudo, já não é tão fácil. Raoni Rajão, pesquisador da Universidade Federal de Minas, aponta que, nesse cenário, a agricultura, por exemplo, terá um aumento de 23% de emissões até 2030. Mas com esforços extras de intensificação de pecuária o aumento poderia ficar em 7%.

Rajão, que coordenou os estudos na área de uso do solo (como desmatamento e agricultura), trabalhou com um cenário de referência que hoje já é bem mais ousado do que ações que o Brasil vinha listando para cumprir suas metas. Ao apresentar suas metas numéricas de redução de emissões - como contribuição ao Acordo de Paris, que prevê esforços de todo o mundo para o combate ao aquecimento global -, o Brasil apresentou em um anexo uma série de ações, como zerar o desmatamento da Amazônia até 2030 e restaurar 12 milhões de hectares de florestas desmatadas.

"As leis que temos trazem metas que vão além disso, como reduzir 40% de desmatamento no Cerrado, o que está previsto na Política Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas, de 2009", explica Rajão. Um trabalho anterior do seu grupo na UFMG, independente deste estudo encomendado pelo ministério, já tinha apontado no ano passado que essas ações que foram listadas pelo governo são insuficientes para cumprir a meta numérica.

Custo

De acordo com o "Opções", a situação a partir de 2030 (meta de emissão de 1,2 gigatonelada de CO2), fica ainda mais complexa, visto que a expectativa é que haja crescimento econômico e um aumento da demanda por energia. 

"No cenário de referência, quem começa a mostra a cara é o carvão", comenta Roberto Schaeffer, da Coppe/UFRJ, referindo-se ao fato de que a energia proveniente de termoelétricas é mais barata. Para evitar isso, diz, a saída é colocar um preço sobre o carbono emitido. 

"O carvão é barato porque ninguém precifica o impacto ambiental que ele tem, mas as alternativas renováveis só vão valer a pena quando isso for considerado", diz. Segundo os cálculos, um preço de US$ 10 a tonelada de CO2 emitido poderia dobrar a redução de emissões.

Matéria publicada no jornal O Estado de S. Paulo.

 

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