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Mercado defenderá Acordo de Paris, diz secretário da gestão Obama

RAUL JUSTE LORES, FOLHA DE S. PAULO

As empresas americanas serão grandes defensoras do Acordo de Paris depois da retirada decidida pelo presidente Donald Trump, afirma o físico nuclear Ernest Moniz, 72, secretário de Energia na gestão Obama que negociou o acordo com outros 194 países em 2015.

"Os presidentes das grandes empresas pensam a longo prazo e sabem das oportunidades bilionárias da nova economia de baixo carbono", disse ele à Folha. Ele nega que eficiência energética seja responsável por desemprego e aposta que a China e outros países já estão ocupando o "vácuo" deixado pela liderança americana.

Neto de imigrantes açorianos, e casado com a brasileira Naomi, professora de literatura na Universidade Georgetown, Moniz é professor de física no Instituto de Tecnologia de Massachusetts, o MIT, desde 1973. Desde que deixou o governo, em janeiro, voltou ao MIT e está criando um centro de estudos para medir os impactos da descarbonização.

ENTREVISTA

Até as maiores petrolíferas americanas criticaram a decisão do presidente Trump em abandonar o acordo de Paris. Qual será o papel delas?

As grandes empresas não abandonarão as metas do Acordo de Paris, com ou sem Trump. Cerca de mil grandes empresas já anunciaram que manterão seus compromissos com a eficiência energética, seguindo o que foi decidido no Acordo de Paris. Se você é presidente de uma empresa e pensa a longo prazo, sabe que o futuro será da economia de baixas emissões de carbono.

Trump já autorizou a ampliação do oleoduto Keystone e indica que vai mudar exigências para a indústria automobilística e petrolífera. Em que outra área ele pode atingir mais a política ambiental?

Depois do Acordo de Paris, eu diria que foi na proposta de orçamento que Trump apresentou há poucas semanas. Os EUA, junto com outros 20 países desenvolvidos, tinham previsto duplicar os investimentos em tecnologia de eficiência energética. Ele reduziu esse orçamento à metade. Vamos ficar para trás assim.

A atitude dos EUA não pode desestimular outros países como a China a respeitar as metas?

A China está em um ritmo até mais acelerado que o previsto para atingir suas metas. O uso do carvão lá já atingiu seu pico e teve queda nos últimos dois anos. A China já está mostrando mais liderança em temas ambientais, ocupando o vácuo deixado pelos EUA. Também vai trabalhar mais em conjunto com a Europa. Eles entendem que soluções para a mudança climática oferecem oportunidades econômicas.

Trump passou boa parte da campanha acusando as regulações ambientais de ter prejudicado o negócio do carvão no país, deixando milhares de desempregados.

A maioria das minas de carvão e termelétricas foi fechada por razões de mercado, não por decisão política. A perda desses empregos aconteceu nos últimos trinta anos pela mecanização, por novas tecnologias, por custos, não por regulamentação ambiental. O gás natural está bem mais barato. Os empregos no setor do carvão não vão retornar em número significante.

Parte do público americano parece acreditar que medidas ambientais são exterminadoras de empregos.

O que destrói empregos é não se preparar para a inovação. Eficiência energética cria empregos do futuro.

A indústria do carvão encolheu 60% entre 1985 e 2016, com o desaparecimento de 140 mil empregos. A produção de petróleo doméstico quase dobrou de 5 milhões de barris/dia em 2004 para 9,4 milhões em 2015, especialmente por conta do gás de xisto.

Desde 2008, o custo da energia solar caiu 64% e o da eólica, 41%. O preço das lâmpadas LED, mais eficientes, caiu 94% desde 2008.

Houve fracasso em comunicar a seriedade da mudança climática? O eleitorado de Trump parece concordar com ele.

Boa parte do governo Trump sabe que a mudança climática é real e que a ação do homem é comprovada por dados. Dezesseis dos anos mais quentes já registrados na história ocorreram neste século. O nível do mar está subindo, glaciares derretendo, corais morrem e tempestades marítimas são mais intensas.

Tanto o secretário de Estado quanto o de Defesa demonstram saber claramente.

Mas e a sociedade?

Estamos no meio de uma onda de raiva e de angústia provocadas pela desigualdade que foi crescendo nas últimas décadas. O populismo está canalizando essa raiva. Então Trump fala de meio ambiente como se fosse um tema das elites. Precisamos de um novo contrato social, com uma visão forte de futuro, para reagir.

A retirada dos EUA do Acordo de Paris não será uma tragédia se grandes empresas, governos estaduais e prefeituras mantiverem as metas?

Não quero subestimar o efeito da decisão. O impacto do governo Trump é a perda da liderança americana, mas não só em economia e meio ambiente. Os EUA ocupam a presidência rotativa do Conselho Ártico, que cuida de proteções ambientais, comunidades indígenas, entre vários temas. Ao indicar que não se preocupa com a exploração petrolífera no Ártico, esse governo cede a liderança para outros. Já fez isso ao espalhar incertezas na Otan, no comércio internacional. Justo o presidente que fala "America first" (América em primeiro lugar) está enfraquecendo os EUA e a confiança de longo prazo dos aliados no país.

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Raio-X

IDADE
72 anos

FORMAÇÃO
Formou-se em física no Boston College, fez doutorado em física teórica na Universidade Stanford e recebeu títulos honoríficos de oito universidades

CARREIRA
Foi secretário de Energia de 2013 a 2017 na gestão de Barack Obama. Já havia trabalhado na pasta durante o governo do também democrata Bill Clinton

Matéria publicada na Folha de S. Paulo.

 

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