Início > Noticias > Forte seca pode fazer Amazônia ter recorde de queimadas

Forte seca pode fazer Amazônia ter recorde de queimadas

Nasa aponta que fenômeno El Niño pode ter sido responsável pela diminuição da umidade do solo.

GABRIEL ALVES - FOLHA DE S. PAULO

Na Amazônia, a previsão de falta de chuvas e a consequente secura do solo nunca foram tão extremos, mostra novo estudo. A consequência dessa combinação pode ser a maior temporada de queimadas já registradas.

A pesquisa foi comandada por pesquisadores da Universidade da Califórnia em Irvine (EUA) e os resultados se baseiam em um modelo matemático que leva em conta uma previsão meteorológica de médio prazo –de como será o tempo nos próximos meses.

Espera-se que os próximos três meses (julho, agosto e setembro) sejam particularmente secos na região. O culpado, aponta a Nasa, que disponibilizou dados para o estudo, pode ser o El Niño, fenômeno climático que bagunça também o clima amazônico.

As temperaturas anormais do oceano Pacífico entram na conta de um modelo matemático que fez disparar o alarme dos cientistas. A primeira grande estiagem desse tipo foi em 2005, e houve outra em 2010. A de 2016 promete ser a pior de todas.

Apesar da aparente periodicidade, ainda é cedo para dizer que a cada cinco ou seis anos haverá esse prognóstico de fogo na floresta.

"Por enquanto, é só um indício de que haverá um aumento da incidência de longos períodos secos", diz o físico Paulo Artaxo, professor da USP e membro do IPCC (Painel Internacional de Mudanças Climáticas).

"Mas ainda é muito cedo para atribuir esses fenômenos às mudanças climáticas. Com três eventos em cem anos é difícil fazer estatística. Temos de esperar mais para acumular dados o suficiente para ter confiabilidade nessa associação, se é que ela existe."

De qualquer maneira, para o professor também não é possível eliminar a possibilidade de que o aquecimento global esteja por trás da infeliz sucessão de eventos.

MATO GROSSO

No estudo americano foi calculado o risco de queimadas em dez regiões diferentes da mata em três países, Brasil, Peru e Bolívia.

Em uma escala que vai de 0 a 100, onde menos de 50 significa risco baixo e 100 é o risco máximo, em 2016 todas as dez localidades estão com risco de 92 ou mais.

O menor risco é o da região de Pando, na Bolívia (92) e o maior é o do Pará (98). Em 2015, os valores variavam entre 31 e 64 –a região boliviana tinha 33, e o Pará, 62.

A região de Mato Grosso, que sustenta o inglório título de campeã de queimadas, teve o risco aumentado de 64 para 97. Entre 2001 e 2014, Mato Grosso apresentou uma média de 46,1 mil focos de incêndio na mata por milhão de hectares (área equivalente à de um quadrado de 100 km de lado).

"Como não é possível controlar a precipitação, o esforço tem que ser na direção de controlar queimadas", afirma Artaxo.

As queimadas são de dois tipos, explica. Um deles é aquela ligada ao desmate, em que a matéria vegetal, após secar, é queimada com o intuito de abrir espaço para pastagens ou plantações.

O outro tipo, que vem crescendo, é a queima de resíduos de plantações. No tempo seco, é fácil que o fogo se alastre, causando prejuízo à biodiversidade e lançando material particulado e gás carbônico na atmosfera, contribuindo com o efeito-estufa e o aquecimento global.

BICHO HOMEM

"Na Amazônia, todas as queimadas são produzidas pelo homem. Sem o governo presente no dia a dia, é fácil que esse número saia de controle", diz Artaxo. "É mais do que claro que o aumento de queimadas é inversamente proporcional à fiscalização."

Sem a proximidade do governo, além de queimadas criminosas, é possível que as regulares também saiam de controle e se espalhem, prejudicando o ecossistema.

Recentemente um estudo publicado na revista "Nature" mostrou que mesmo uma pequena intervenção humana é capaz de abalar o ecossistema da floresta tropical, desde besouros até aves.

Matéria publicada na Folha de S. Paulo.

 

Comentários

imagem de ghazaliya
Enviado por ghazaliya em ter, 09/08/2016 - 13:24

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