Início > Noticias > Estudo traça impacto e estima prejuízo com a mudança climática no Brasil

Estudo traça impacto e estima prejuízo com a mudança climática no Brasil

GIULIANA MIRANDA, COLABORAÇÃO PARA A FOLHA DE S. PAULO

O aumento da temperatura global vai afetar –e muito– as cidades da costa brasileira, causando desde enchentes, deslizamentos e outros desastres naturais até a destruição de ecossistemas e prejuízos na economia.

As conclusões são do relatório "Impacto, vulnerabilidade e adaptação das cidades costeiras brasileiras às mudanças climáticas" lançado nesta segunda-feira (5).

O documento é resultado de uma extensa revisão e análise de publicações científicas, que permitiram traçar o sombrio cenário para as cidades da costa do Brasil.

"Está bem ruim mesmo. A situação está difícil, mas a função do relatório é apontar os cenários que podem acontecer", resume Suzana Kahn, presidente do Comitê Científico do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas, corpo científico criado pelos ministérios da Ciência e Tecnologia e do Meio Ambiente para reunir e avaliar informações científicas sobre os impactos do aquecimento global no Brasil, publicadas agora no relatório.

Das 42 regiões metropolitanas dos Brasil, 18 estão localizadas na zona costeira ou são influenciadas por ela: Macapá, Belém, São Luiz, Fortaleza, Natal, Aracaju, Maceió, João Pessoa, Recife, Salvador, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, Vale do Paraíba/Litoral Norte de São Paulo, Baixada Santista, Joinville, Foz do Itajaí, Florianópolis e Porto Alegre -que, embora não seja oficialmente uma zona costeira, recebe grande influência dela pela sua localização nas margens da lagoa dos Patos.

O relatório mostra que essas regiões, que respondem por cerca de 30% do PIB (produto interno bruto) nacional, estão sujeitas a uma espécie de efeito dominó causado pelo aquecimento global.

Conforme as temperaturas sobem em todo o planeta, calotas polares e o gelo dos oceanos vão derretendo, provocando a subida do nível do mar. Uma mudança que é perceptível em algumas regiões e que deve se intensificar ainda mais num futuro não muito distante.

O efeito mais flagrante da elevação do nível do mar são as inundações das áreas costeiras, que afetam diretamente a população e a infraestrutura urbana. O problema, porém, não se limita a isso, mostra o relatório.

Ao analisar os estudos, os cientistas do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas identificaram que também são alteradas as dinâmicas de fenômenos naturais, como os ciclos de chuvas. Esse tipo de mudança contribui para a intensificação de eventos extremos, como tempestades ou longos períodos de seca.

Além de afetarem a população, esses eventos ainda prejudicam a economia, atingindo a agropecuária e até a indústria.
 


MAIS AFETADAS

O estudo ainda mostra que as regiões Nordeste, Sudeste e Sul apresentam uma propensão maior para a ocorrência de desastres naturais.

A região Nordeste, que é tradicionalmente afetada pela seca, está sujeita a sofrer ainda mais com as estiagens.

No Sul e no Sudeste há um risco combinado de secas e fenômenos hidrológicos.

Em termos de risco de mortalidade da população, um maior número de vítimas está associado a desastres hidrológicos, sobretudo na costa do leste do Nordeste, e nas regiões Sudeste e Sul. Os pesquisadores estimaram ainda quanto isso custaria para a economia dessas cidades e do Brasil como um todo.

Os maiores danos são no setor de infraestrutura, que são 59% do total.

O prejuízo com casas e habitações são de 36% e os em instalações de saúde, ensino e outras 5%.

"Enchentes, inundações e temperaturas mais altas ainda causam uma série de problemas de saúde pública", enfatiza Suzana Kahn.

ESPERANÇA

O trabalho usou a mesma estratégia de preparação dos relatórios do IPCC (painel de mudanças climáticas da ONU) e indica impactos diferentes mediante cenários climáticos mais ou
menos extremos.

A presidente do Comitê Científico do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas sublinha que, para evitar as piores consequências, é fundamental haver um esforço para reduzir as emissões
de gases-estufa.

"Além das reduções, é preciso também combinar as chamadas medidas de adaptação e mitigação", diz Kahn, para quem o relatório tem a missão de ajudar a orientar políticas públicas e a tomada de decisões.

Matéria publicada na Folha de S. Paulo.

 

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