Início > Noticias > Clima dará prejuízo de R$ 1,5 bilhão a Santos

Clima dará prejuízo de R$ 1,5 bilhão a Santos

Estudo indica um aumento do nível do mar de pelo menos 18 centímetros até 2050

Fábio de Castro, O Estado de S. Paulo

Na cidade de Santos, no litoral paulista, as mudanças climáticas provocarão um aumento do nível do mar de pelo menos 18 centímetros até 2050, podendo chegar a até 45 centímetros em 2100. Se nenhuma obra de adaptação for feita, apenas com os danos aos imóveis, o município terá um prejuízo de, no mínimo, R$ 1,5 bilhão até o fim do século.

Essa é a conclusão do relatório final de um estudo que integra o Projeto Metrópole, iniciativa internacional que diagnosticou os impactos da elevação da maré em Santos, Broward, nos Estados Unidos, e Selsey, na Inglaterra. Os dados foram apresentados nesta quinta-feira, 17, em Santos pela equipe envolvida no projeto. Segundo o coordenador-geral do estudo, José Marengo, do Centro Nacional de Monitoramento de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), não há mais escapatória: Santos precisará de obras de adaptação.

“Se nada for feito, o prejuízo será de pelo menos R$ 1,5 bilhão até 2100. Mas essa quantia pode ser bastante otimista, pois tem como base o valor venal das propriedades que sofrerão impactos. Estimamos que o prejuízo real chegue ao dobro, sem contar os custos humanos incalculáveis”, disse Marengo ao Estado. “As adaptações serão necessárias, não há como escapar. E não estamos falando sobre mudanças do clima em um futuro distante - é preciso entrar em ação agora.”

O estudo incluiu uma modelagem de quais áreas da cidade serão inundadas periodicamente em cenários de elevação das marés de 18 a 23 centímetros em 2050 e de 36 a 45 centímetros em 2100. “Mas essa elevação poderá chegar tranquilamente a dois metros durante a maré alta, as tempestades e as ressacas”, disse Marengo.

Áreas vulneráveis

O estudo mostra que a frequência das ressacas no litoral paulista está aumentando consideravelmente nas últimas décadas. Segundo Marengo, os impactos já são sentidos nas duas áreas mais vulneráveis da cidade, o valorizado bairro da Ponta da Praia e a zona noroeste.

Para evitar os prejuízos estimados, o município precisará investir pelo menos R$ 240 milhões, aponta o coordenador-geral. “Há várias formas de adaptação, como o aumento artificial da faixa de areia e obras de infraestrutura como diques e paredes de proteção. A população de Santos sugeriu muito fortemente uma adaptação com base em ecossistemas, que consiste na revitalização dos manguezais.”

Santos foi escolhida para o projeto, segundo Marengo, porque tem os dados mais completos sobre variações de marés e o georreferenciamento mais preciso entre as cidades litorâneas. Os métodos utilizados podem ser replicados em qualquer cidade da costa brasileira.

“Esse tipo de estudo pode ser replicado em qualquer área, mas é preciso ter a abertura que encontramos na cidade de Santos. A população, o prefeito e os secretários municipais participaram com muito interesse e dedicação”, afirmou Marengo.

De acordo com ele, a prefeitura de Santos, envolvida diretamente no estudo, criou em 2015 uma comissão municipal para mudanças climáticas e começou a elaborar um plano municipal de adaptação. Consultas públicas foram realizadas durante o processo e organizações não governamentais envolvidas com questões ambientais também participaram.

Segundo outra pesquisadora envolvida no projeto, Célia Regina de Gouveia Souza, do Instituto Geológico de São Paulo, a pesquisa deu ao poder público subsídios fundamentais para a adaptação à elevação das marés. “A situação é muito grave do ponto de vista das praias. A erosão costeira é muito grande, por causa do processo de expansão urbana associado à elevação do nível do mar e aos eventos extremos que estão aumentando em virtude das mudanças climáticas.”

Matéria publicada no jornal O Estado de S. Paulo.

 

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