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Calor absorvido pelos oceanos seria capaz de aquecer a Terra em 36°C

Desde os anos 70, os oceanos absorveram 93% do calor promovido pelo aumento da concentração de gases de efeito estufa no planeta. Se isso tudo tivesse ido para a atmosfera, já teríamos derretido. Os oceanos, porém, já estão apresentando sinais sensíveis de que estão sofrendo com esse aumento de temperatura e podem não ser mais capazes de prestar esses serviços, alerta novo relatório.

Giovana Girardi* - O Estado de S. Paulo

Mais de 93% do aquecimento da temperatura do planeta desde 1970 por causa do aumento da emissão de gases de efeito estufa foi absorvido pelos oceanos. Se a mesma quantidade de calor que foi absorvida ao longo de 2 mil metros de profundidade entre 1955 e 2010 tivesse ido para os 10 quilômetros mais baixos da atmosfera, então a Terra teria passado por um aquecimento de 36°C.

Com essa imagem bastante simbólica que mostra como os oceanos têm funcionado como um escudo do planeta contra o aquecimento global, cientistas alertaram nesta segunda (5) que essa capacidade têm limites e que consequências danosas já estão sendo sentidas em todos os níveis de vida nesses ecossistemas. O alerta foi divulgado no Congresso Internacional de Conservação, da União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza (IUCN), com o lançamento do relatório “Explicando o Aquecimento dos Oceanos”.

Além do bastante conhecido efeito de acidificação das águas provocado pela absorção massiva de gás carbônico, que têm levado a um avanço sem precedentes do branqueamento de corais, o trabalho, que traz a mais abrangente revisão dos estudos publicados sobre o aquecimento dos oceanos, mostra os impactos sobre os mais variados ecossistemas e também sobre os serviços prestados pelos oceanos.

“Todos nós sabemos que os oceanos têm sustentado esse planeta. Que provêm o ar que respiramos e ainda estamos tornando os oceanos doentes. É isso que esse relatório destaca. Como resultado do aquecimento global, eles estão sofrendo de modo agudo. E até 2100 é provável que ele aquece ainda mais, de 1°C e 4°C. Numa escala ecológica do tempo, isso significa amanhã”, disse Inger Andersen, diretora geral da IUCN, em entrevista coletiva.

Ao absorver CO₂ e a maior parte do aquecimento, ressaltou Inger, os oceanos vêm funcionando como “nossos aliados”, mas é uma questão agora de saber quanto mais eles são capazes de absorver.

O relatório destaca que o aquecimento dos primeiros 700 metros de profundidade dos oceanos é equivalente a cerca de 240 vezes o consumo global de energia humano em 2013. “O calor e o CO₂ acumulados no oceano não estão permanente presos, mas podem ser lançados de volta a atmosfera quando a superfície do oceano estiver anormalmente quente, dando um rápido e positivo retorno ao aquecimento global”, escrevem os autores.

Acredita-se que a situação atual já tenha colaborado para um aumento da severidade de furacões, apesar de a frequência global deles não ter mudado significativamente. o cálculo é que a intensidade desses sistemas aumente de 25% a 30% a cada grau a mais de aquecimento.

Dan Laffoley, vice-presidente do setor marinho da comissão da IUCN sobre áreas protegidas, que coordenou o relatório, resumiu algumas das consequências observadas: “Vemos espécies mudando em direção aos polos em 10° de latitude. Isto é de 1,5 a 5 vezes mais rápido do que qualquer outra coisa que temos visto em terra. Temos visto perda de áreas para reprodução, impacto no sucesso reprodutivo, mudanças nas estratégias de forrageamento (busca de alimento), espécies se mudando de lugar atrás de comida que eles costumavam encontrar em outros lugares”. Até mesmo a proporção entre os sexos das crias de tartarugas estão mudando com as temperaturas mais altas.

Segundo ele, estamos mudando as estações nos oceanos. “E quanto mais os oceanos se aquecem e algumas áreas ficam com menos oxigênio, estamos deixando algumas grandes regiões propícias apenas para micróbios, o que aumenta o potencial de liberar gases de efeito estufa que são 310 vezes mais potentes que o dióxido de carbono (CO₂)”, afirmou. “O que isso significa? Tudo está mudando, em diferentes níveis, e isso tem consequências para as espécies, que ficam com mais dificuldade para existir. Em resumo, estamos perturbando o ritmo da vida nos oceanos.”

Mais proteção

E o que é possível fazer? Além de urgirem pela redução das emissões de gases de efeito estufa, única forma de realmente sanar o problema, os pesquisadores recomendaram a criação de mais áreas protegidas de modo a tornar os oceanos mais saudáveis. É o caso da enorme reserva marinha criada pelo presidente Barack Obama no final de agosto (ele quadruplicou a área de Papahanaumokuakea, no Havaí, tornando-se a maior reserva marinha do mundo) ou da proposta do governo brasileiro e outros países de criação do Santuário de Baleias do Altântico Sul.

“Não vai resolver todo o problema, porque temos colocado uma enorme quantidade de carbono nos oceanos, mas com isso podemos ganhar algum tempo para encontrar talvez novas tecnologias e mudar nossos sistemas energéticos. Nesse sentido as áreas protegidas são muito importantes”, disse ao Estado Carl Gustaf Lundin, diretor de parcerias estratégicas globais da IUCN.

“Ecossistemas mais saudáveis são mais capazes de absorver carbono e o colocá-lo no fundo do mar. Mas hoje tem muito carbono, então vem se transformando em acidificação, dissolvendo-se e se tornando mais ácido, o que é um grande problema. Mas quanto mais seres vivos estão no oceano, mais carbono pode ser absorvido por eles e também vai parar no fundo do mar”, explicou. Segundo ele, seria possível acomodar todo o carbono no fundo do mar aos poucos, mas isso leva tempo. “E o planeta não tem esse tempo.”

As grandes reservam permitem que a natureza faça seu trabalho e ser mais capaz de também lidar com flutuações de água quente e tempestades. “Um ecossistema saudável se recupera de uma tempestade, mas um doente, frequentemente não.”

Com essas proteções, há controle, por exemplo, sobre a pesca. “Normalmente só vemos os peixes como commodities, mas na verdade deveríamos vê-los como parte de um ecossistema saudável que nos ajuda também com o clima. Talvez eles valessem até mais por tomarem conta dos efeitos climáticos do que quando os comemos”, disse Lundin.

“E as baleias também têm esse papel. Uma das formas em que o carbono é captura é por meio da queda das baleias. Quando elas morrem, elas normalmente caem no fundo do mar e vão ficar ali por cerca de cem anos, formando todo um ecossistema em torno de seus ossos. Assim como ocorre com os grandes peixes. Sempre foi assim, mas já exploramos mais de 90% dos grandes peixes, mais de 90% das baleias, e o carbono não está mais sendo capturado da mesma maneira.”

* A repórter viajou para Honolulu a convite da IUCN

Matéria publicada no jornal O Estado de S. Paulo.


 

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