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Apesar de decisão de Trump, Estados americanos seguem Acordo de Paris

ISABEL FLECK, DE WASHINGTON - FOLHA DE S. PAULO

Até a terça-feira (6), dez Estados já faziam parte da Aliança do Clima criada por Califórnia, Nova York e Washington assim que o presidente Donald Trump anunciou que os Estados Unidos sairiam do Acordo de Paris, na última quinta (1º).

Os Estados –oito governados por democratas e dois por republicanos, Massachusetts e Vermont– anunciaram que seguirão o compromisso com o acordo global sobre o clima independentemente da Casa Branca.

A grande dúvida, no entanto, é o real impacto do compromisso de corte assumido por esses Estados diante das emissões de todo o país.

Oito deles –os governados por democratas– também se juntaram a um outro grupo, liderado pelo ex-prefeito de Nova York Michael Bloomberg, que disse que apresentará a sua própria proposta de redução de emissões à ONU. Fazem parte desse mais de 30 prefeitos, 80 reitores de universidades e cem empresas.

Os dez Estados da aliança foram responsáveis por apenas 16% do total de emissões de gás carbônico relacionadas a energia do país, com 877 milhões de toneladas. Apenas dois deles, Califórnia e Nova York, figuram na lista dos dez Estados americanos que mais poluem.

"A questão é que governos estaduais estão dispostos a 'fazer a sua parte'. Os lugares que produzem a maior parte das emissões serão os menos dispostos a ações dispendiosas e, portanto, a eficácia dos esforços dos voluntários vão sempre ser limitados", afirma Philip Wallach, especialista em regulação ambiental do Instituto Brookings.
 




Wallach observa que a partidarização sobre o tema também não ajudará nas adesões à aliança, já que, dos 50 Estados americanos, 33 são governados por republicanos.

"Dado o caráter intensamente partidário desta questão no momento, os Estados que assumirão as ações mais significativas serão os de governo democrata –uma minoria no momento", afirmou.

Para o professor de legislação ambiental da Universidade de Maryland, Robert Percival, no entanto, o fato de a aliança incluir a Califórnia e o Estado de Nova York, que juntos somam cerca de 18% da população americana já eleva a importância da iniciativa.

"Esses Estados estão entre os mais populosos dos EUA e, por isso, podem ter um impacto muito significante no total de emissões do país."

A aliança, contudo, será refém de um desafio que seu próprio protagonismo criou. Cinco dos dez Estados do grupo (Massachusetts, Nova York, Connecticut, Havaí e Virgínia) já reduziram em mais de 20% suas emissões com base nos níveis de 2005.

O compromisso então assumido pelos EUA era o de diminuir, até 2025, entre 26% e 28% as emissões em relação a 2005. Só que o Texas, por exemplo, tinha aumentado em 3,7% as emissões em 2014 com base nesse mesmo ano.

"Muitos dos Estados mais comprometidos com a questão climática já atingiram os resultados mais fáceis, então sua capacidade de contribuir com a redução das emissões nacionais é limitada", afirma Wallach.

REGULAÇÃO

Percival se mostra otimista com a iniciativa da aliança, já que muitas decisões de cunho ambiental são de responsabilidade dos Estados.

"As principais leis ambientais federais estabelecem parâmetros mínimos que os Estados têm que cumprir. Mas as leis geralmente permitem que os Estados adotem padrões ainda mais estritos", diz. "Foi isso que a Califórnia fez."

O especialista lembra que um Estado pode eliminar progressivamente termelétricas a carvão, substituindo-as por fontes de energia renovável. "Uma das únicas áreas que os Estados têm restrição de ir além dos padrões federais é na regulação das emissões por veículos", afirma, lembrando a exceção da Califórnia e dos Estados que seguem a sua legislação no tema –já que isso foi acordado em emendas feitas à Lei de Ar Puro, de 1970.

Apesar de apontar a politização do tema, Wallach afirma que já há esforços para promover energia renovável mesmo em Estados de governo republicano. Texas, o maior poluidor, é também o maior produtor de energia eólica, com 57.600 GWh produzidos em 2016, mais do que o quádruplo da Califórnia (13.700 GWh).

Matéria publicada na Folha de S. Paulo.

 

 


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